■林國賓
原文：
Russia is set to hike taxes on businesses and consumers as the government looks for ways to support military spending while its war-focused economy creaks at the seams.
The Kremlin’s commitment to the ongoing war with Ukraine came under renewed scrutiny Monday when the Finance Ministry released its 2026 draft budget. The spending plans show defense spending next year would stay largely static, and would be funded with tax hikes amid increasingly dour growth forecasts.
Russia’s Finance Ministry said that in order “to finance defense and security” it was proposing a number of tax hikes that it said were an alternative to increased borrowing and a way reduce the budget deficit, which was forecast at 1.6% of GDP in 2026.
Most notably, ministry officials said they planned to increase VAT from 20% to 22%, while the threshold at which small businesses start to pay VAT will be lowered from 60 million rubles (around $738,000) to 10 million rubles (around $123,000). The ministry also proposed a new 5% gambling tax.
The proposed tax hikes come as economic growth is expected to stutter to 1.3% in 2026, the government said - a far cry from the 4.1% expansion recorded in 2024 and a sharp drop from the previous projections for 2.5% growth this year and 2.4% next year.
The preliminary budget - which needs to be approved by the Russian parliament, the State Duma - suggested that defense spending would fall slightly in 2026, to 13 trillion rubles, down from a post-soviet record of 13.5 trillion rubles this year.
中譯：
在戰爭導向經濟瀕臨崩潰之際，為尋找支撐軍事開支的財源，俄羅斯打算對企業與消費者加稅。
隨著俄羅斯財政部週一公布2026年預算草案，克里姆林宮持續投入對烏戰爭的立場再度受到關注。根據支出方案，明年國防開支將大致維持不變，但因經濟預測愈來愈悲觀，因此將透過加稅來支應。
財政部指出，為了「籌措國防與安全經費」，將提出多項增稅方案，以避免舉債並縮小預算赤字。預測2026年預算赤字將達國內生產毛額的1.6%。
其中最受矚目的，是將現行增值稅自20%上調至22%，並大幅調降小型企業課稅門檻，從6000萬盧布（約73.8萬美元）降至1000萬盧布（約12.3萬美元）；另提議徵收5%的新博弈稅。
提案加稅時機，正值官方下修經濟成長預測，預料2026年僅成長1.3%，遠低於2024年的4.1%，也較先前預估的今年成長2.5%、明年2.4%明顯滑落。
預算草案預估2026年國防開支將略減至13兆盧布，低於今年創下後蘇聯時期紀錄的13.5兆盧布。該預算案仍須提交俄羅斯國會下院「國家杜馬」審議通過。
- 關鍵軍語 -
※defense spending：國防支出
※budget deficit：預算赤字